RESEARCH
Works in Progress
The Social Value of Farm Animal Welfare: Evidence, Beliefs, and Voter Behavior
+/- Abstract
Do farm animal welfare regulations go too far or not far enough? Despite a growing set of government policies around the world aimed at improving farm animal welfare, there are no revealed empirical estimates of how much the public values these improvements. To resolve this, I use consumer panel data to estimate the effect of California's ban on the in-state sale of battery-caged eggs (Prop 2) on consumer costs (surplus) and US caged and cage-free hen populations. To estimate policy benefits, I use a survey to elicit respondents' willingness to pay to improve conditions for layer hens on both the intensive (caged v. cage-free) and extensive (existence v. non-existence) margin. Modelling the decision of the marginal voter based on survey responses and applying the Median Voter Theorem yields a minimum estimate of the “Social Cost of Caged Hen Existence” as revealed by California’s popular vote.
Wildfire Zoning and Heterogeneous Responses to Wildfire Events: Evidence from the California Housing Market
(with Matthew Wibbenmeyer)
+/- Abstract
Do wildfires alter local demographics? Employing event study and difference-in-differences strategies, we study the effect of 192 large wildfire events (2016-2018) on nearby house transaction prices and quantities to identify heterogeneity in real estate market responses across Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) mapped by the state in 2011. We find that post-wildfire sellers in "very high" FHSZ have significantly lower incomes than before, whereas post-wildfire sellers outside of any FHSZ (non-FHSZ) have the same income levels as before. Meanwhile, post-wildfire buyers have lower incomes than before regardless of zone. Controlling for house characteristics, home prices in "very high" FHSZ are unaffected by a nearby fire, however the types of homes sold in these areas after a fire are of a significantly lower quality relative to before. In contrast, home prices in non-FHSZ areas decrease after a nearby fire by more than 14 percent and remain low for at least a year, but the quality of homes sold in these areas remains the same as before. We rationalize these findings by calibrating a model of seller/buyer behavior that incorporates decreasing relative risk aversion and treats wildfires as information shocks.
No Ethical Consumption Under General Equilibrium? Evidence from the US Meat Market
(with Christoph Semken)
+/- Abstract
Many consumers engage in ethical consumption, altering their consumption choices so as to mitigate their personal contributions to negative externalities such as climate change, animal welfare, or pollution. But do individual consumption choice have any impact on overall externalities in a competitive market? In this paper, we estimate the effect of consumption changes on externalities in general equilibrium for the U.S. meat market. We derive sufficient statistics based on the demand and supply cross-price elasticities of all goods with externalities. We estimate the cross-price elasticities using home scanner data and farmer surveys, respectively, and derive the effect of ethical meat consumption on animal welfare. We further show that the effect on other externalities can be estimated using bounding assumptions on substitution patterns. Using such assumptions, we additionally estimate the effect of ethical meat consumption on overall greenhouse gas emissions
A Scoping Review of Incentives for Adopting More Humane Farm Practices
(with Sharon Pailler, Jon McFadden, Sharon Raszap, Zach Raff)
+/- Abstract
To identify factors that are associated with farmer decisions to employ humane farm practices, we perform a scoping review of academic literature. Guided by topical analysis performed by a latent derelict allocation (LDA) machine learning model, we identify factors mentioned in the literature as being relevant to both animal welfare and producer decisions. Informed by this model, we categorize these factors as motivators for or barriers to the use of more humane farm practices.
Published Work
(with Alex Hoagland)
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2018
Other Work
(with Zach Freitas-Groff and Carl Meyer)
Kilts Center at Chicago Booth Marketing Data Center Paper, 2024
+/- Abstract
The past decades have seen a number of new policies and food technology businesses concerned with alleviating animal welfare or environmental impacts of animal agriculture. We study whether there is evidence that consumer behavior is changing in parallel by examining real grocery purchases matched with machine-scanned label data. We find that meat consumption has been at its highest in recent years, consistent with prior observations, but we offer the first observational evidence that a growing share of the population is purchasing less or no meat and other animal products. While some of this trend can be explained by changes in the volume of grocery purchases, we suggest that media and generational turnover are further driving this trend. We finally discuss the plausible effects of meat alternatives, finding that while they affect meat consumption at a low volume now, they could play a major role in the future.
(with Ethan Ligon)
GiveWell "Change Our Mind Contest" Honorable Mention, 2022
